Final figures suggest that 2023 was the hottest year on record, thus the question is whether 2024 will be even hotter. The oceans may hold the answer. Last week, a group of scientists wrote in Advances in Atmospheric Science that ocean surface temperatures are “off the chart,” at or near their peak since rocketing up last spring. Because the seas cover 71% of the earth and absorb most of global warming's heat, what happens in the water doesn't remain there. Scientists say ocean temperature controls the atmosphere and supercharges unpredictable weather.
Last year's worldwide average temperature was 1.18 to 1.5 Celsius warmer than the century-average, depending on which experts calculated and analyzed the data. Federal officials and climate scientists worldwide blame rising greenhouse gas concentrations. However, natural and human factors drove land and marine temperatures to record highs. Among these impacts, El Niño, a natural Pacific Ocean cycle, brought warmer water to the equator west of South America, weakened trade winds, and shifted ocean heat north and south. The strength of El Niño in the ocean is predicted to impact global climate adjustments in the coming months.
El Niño, formed in May, is expected to dissipate by summer, although its speed of fall and impact on Earth's average temperature remain uncertain. In 2023, the oceans are experiencing more than just El Niño. Record heat in the northern hemisphere Atlantic Ocean, which began rising before El Niño, contributed to greater global temperatures last year. Scientists know less about the Atlantic than the Pacific.
A number of climate scientists told USA TODAY that 2024 may be somewhat hotter than 2023. According to scientists, 2023 was the hottest year since 1880, with temperatures throughout most of the Earth higher than usual. This chart shows how much warmer temperatures were than 1951-1980. How hot was 2023? Even top climate scientists were astonished by its heat. "We were looking at this and we were frankly astonished," said NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies director Gavin Schmidt.
The Berkeley Earth annual study said the year was “clear and definitive margin” hotter than 2016. Berkeley Earth's global long-term temperature analysis. Even though scientists believe the 2016 El Niño was stronger than the current one. June through December were the hottest months on record, and July was the hottest month ever.
"Our normal explanation for what's going on does not work this year," he stated. "There is a lot more work that needs to be done to understand what really happened in 2023." Oceans will determine whether 2024 is warmer or cooler than 2023. Chances of 2024 being warmer? "If 2024 follows the old patterns, it will be roughly as warm as 2023 – 50:50 odds of warmer or cooler," Schmidt predicted. Last year defied expectations. “Whether that was a blip or the start of something new,” he asked. “If something else systematic is happening, it will be warmer.”
Michael Mann, climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of the atmospheric sciences journal letter, said this year should be equivalent to or warmer than 2023 due to the same dynamics.
Mann predicts that El Niño will persist in the first half of the year, causing the ocean to export heat to the surface and atmosphere, rising global surface temperatures. Whether 2023 or 2024 wins depends on the El Niño peak and duration.