Berkeley Earth predicts far better than even warming in 2024. They mention recent studies suggesting global warming is accelerating but conclude it's too early to tell.
Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and co-author of the journal article, stated that the El Niño, which emerged after May 2023, has caused record high sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. While sea surface temperatures peak in December during El NIño, its greatest impact is usually seen in February, according to the expert. El Niño causes heat to migrate from the ocean to the atmosphere through evaporation, cooling the ocean and moistening the atmosphere, according to Trenberth. When moisture pours out, frequently thousands of kilometers distant, causing enormous showers or snows, it warms the atmosphere by releasing latent heat from evaporation.
Michelle L'heureux, a NOAA Climate Prediction Center scientist, predicts a return to neutral conditions by April–June, possibly sooner. As El Niño declines, ocean heat in the tropical Pacific Ocean rapidly changes, causing below-average surface temperatures to expand and travel eastward. The ocean may see a La Niña later this year, according to NOAA. Whether that happens early enough to offset the mild temperatures forecast in the first half of the year will determine whether 2024 is colder or warmer than 2023.
August 2023 sea surface temperature anomalies. The Pacific responds swiftly to a weakening El Niño, but other oceans may take months to warm up. Trenberth expects May 2023–2024 to be the warmest on record. El Niño's influence may cause 2024 to be the highest year in global surface temperatures, lasting at least five months into 2023 and probably beyond. Visualizing climate changeThe effects of global warming on Earth
Why is the Atlantic Ocean hot? Physicist and Berkeley Earth principal scientist Robert Rohde remarked, “The changes in the North Atlantic were extreme and not something that was expected in advance.” Rohde and his Berkeley Earth colleagues said in their paper that historical observations suggest a temperature increase like 2023 should occur less than once per century. The team concluded that rising greenhouse gas emissions, random natural variability, the 11-year solar cycle, and an enormous water vapor eruption from the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption in 2022 may have caused the Atlantic spring temperature jump.
A handout photo from Jan. 7, 2022, released by 2022. Planet Labs PBC from Jan. 17, 2022 depicts the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano eruption. Reduced Sahara Desert dust and better shipping emissions also contribute.
Berkeley Earth estimates the global temperature change impact of several causes. Schmidt found the uncertainty "a little disconcerting". However, he believes later this year's studies will explain the Atlantic temperature surge.
He said they have revised aerosol emissions and volcanic effects to add to climate models, and 2024 monitoring will help scientists determine how random the influence was. Berkeley Earth's 2023 national average temperature forecast.